One hundred days after the Iran–Israel conflict began, its effects are no longer confined to the battlefield. New data from the World Bank, warnings from shipping giant Maersk, and fresh projections from the OECD all point in the same direction: the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk to the global economy.
Warning signs are already emerging in global trade. The World Bank’s Global Supply Chain Stress Index has risen sharply in recent months. The index tracks container shipping delays worldwide and is widely used as an indicator of strain in global trade networks. As of May 2026, delayed shipping capacity stood at 2.06 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units), the standard measure of container shipping capacity.
Although the index remains slightly below its pandemic peak, the gap is narrowing. Delayed shipping capacity reached 2.16 million TEUs in March 2022, compared with 2.06 million TEUs in May 2026. The recent increase comes at a time when businesses and governments had hoped global supply chains were finally returning to normal.
MOUNTING PRESSURE ON SHIPPING COMPANIES
Shipping companies are already feeling the pressure. According to Maersk, one of the world’s largest container shipping firms, the conflict is adding roughly USD 500 million to its monthly costs. Higher fuel prices and insurance premiums are driving the increase. The company has warned that if disruptions persist, the impact will extend well beyond the shipping industry.
Businesses that rely on global trade may face higher transportation costs, increasing the price of moving goods around the world. These rising costs are one reason economists are becoming increasingly concerned about the broader implications for growth and inflation.
LOOMING INFLATION SCARES AHEAD
Higher shipping costs rarely remain confined to the logistics sector. As transportation becomes more expensive, businesses face higher operating costs and often pass at least part of those on to consumers.
That is where the OECD’s latest outlook becomes particularly important. In its June 2026 Economic Outlook, the organisation warned that prolonged disruptions to energy supplies and trade could slow global growth while pushing inflation higher. Its baseline forecast projects global economic growth of 2.8 per cent in 2026 and 3.1 per cent in 2027.
However, the OECD also modelled a more severe scenario. If energy and fertiliser prices remain elevated because of continued disruptions, global growth could slow dramatically. In one scenario, growth falls below 1 per cent by late 2026 before recovering gradually.
The message is clear: conflicts can have economic consequences far beyond the areas directly affected. The OECD’s concern is not limited to oil prices. It centres on the combined effects of higher energy costs, disrupted trade routes, rising shipping expenses and increased financial market uncertainty.
The OECD’s alternative scenario rests on a straightforward assumption: the conflict continues to disrupt energy and trade markets through 2027. Under those conditions, energy and fertiliser prices remain elevated, inflation stays higher for longer, and economic growth weakens across major economies.
The organisation estimates that compared to its pre-conflict outlook, the global economy could lose nearly a full percentage point of growth by 2027.
Taken together, rising shipping costs, mounting supply-chain delays and weaker growth forecasts suggest that the global economy remains vulnerable to prolonged disruption. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the likelihood that its economic costs will be felt far away from the battlefield.
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