With its big win in West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party has taken another step towards recovering from its 2024 Lok Sabha setback. Data from 11 states and Union Territories that went to the polls after the 2024 general elections shows how the BJP is working to regain — and expand — its presence.
The BJP improved its tally from 497 Assembly segments based on its leads in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to 664 seats in the subsequent Assembly elections. That is a net gain of 167 seats. This could translate to around 21 Lok Sabha seats.
Over the same period, the Congress moved in the opposite direction, dropping from 353 seats to 171, a loss of 182.
The recently held elections in West Bengal stand out as the single biggest contributor to this surge. The BJP’s tally in the state jumped from 90 leads to 207 seats, a gain of 117. At the same time, the Trinamool Congress saw a sharp decline, falling from 192 Assembly segment leads to 80 seats.
In Maharashtra, the BJP added 53 seats, while in Bihar it gained 21. But in other states, the picture is mixed. The BJP made small gains in Assam and Haryana, with no change in Jammu and Kashmir, and slight improvement in Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. It also lost seats in Jharkhand, Kerala, and Delhi.
Assembly election results do not often carry over to Lok Sabha elections. People vote differently in Assembly and general elections, and local issues matter more in the former.
The next big challenge for the party will be the state elections in early 2027, especially in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP did not do as well in the Lok Sabha polls. With 80 parliamentary seats at stake, its performance in the state will show if this recovery is lasting and whether the party can build momentum for the next general elections in 2029.
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