The numbers game has begun in Tamil Nadu and it’s already turning tense. Actor-politician Vijay walked into Raj Bhavan to stake claim with 112 MLAs backing him, only to be told it’s not enough. “Come back with 118,” Governor Rajendra Arlekar is learnt to have told Vijay, setting off a fresh round of political scrambling. Although Vijay secured support from the Congress, which has five legislators, he orally said he got the backing from the party and asked for time to shore up numbers, according to sources.
Article 164(1) of the Indian Constitution gives the power to the Governor to appoint the Chief Minister. In the case of a hung assembly, the Constitution also gives the Governor discretion to decide the right candidate for the Chief Minister’s chair. Historically, in several states, the Governors invited the leader of the single largest party to form a minority government.
The example of the 2018 Karnataka election can be cited here. The BJP emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats in the state assembly, falling short of the majority mark of 113 seats. The Congress, which secured 80 seats, extended its support to Janata Dal (Secular), which had 37. However, Governor Vajubhai Vala invited BS Yediyurappa to form a minority government. The government lasted only for three days as the Supreme Court ordered an immediate floor test. Since the BJP did not have numbers, it felt before facing the trust vote.
Going by this trend, Arlekar could invite Vijay to form a minority government first and then go for a floor test.
Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) won 108 of 234 seats, but fell 10 short of a majority, in its stunning electoral debut. Allies are still hedging. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which is a DMK ally, was earlier expected to hold a key meeting at 10 am on Thursday before announcing its stand. However, the party has cancelled the meeting.
Left parties have pushed their decision to May 8 (Friday), and are yet to fully come on board. Both the VCK and Left parties are part of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA). As per sources close to the development, the DMK is confident that the Left parties would not switch sides.
In short, the claim has been staked, but the crown is still just out of reach.
A ROUND-UP OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED SO FAR:
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What followed over the last 48 hours was a fast-moving political churn. Parties scrambled, lines blurred and unexpected support began to take shape. The AIADMK and the Congress moved towards Vijay’s camp, even as the AIADMK itself showed signs of strain. Several AIADMK leaders openly pushed for backing Vijay, citing the party’s string of setbacks in the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the 2021 and 2026 Assembly elections.
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With the backing of senior AIADMK leaders CV Shanmugam and SP Velumani, the leadership considered the possibility of providing outside support to a potential TVK-led government rather than joining the administration.
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Amid speculation, it has come to light that a vehicle linked to TVK leader Aadhav Arjuna reached AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami’s residence with TVK’s official letter to seek support on Wednesday. However, sources clarified that neither Aadhav Arjuna nor TVK general secretary Bussy Anand was present at the time.
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However, the short-lived possibility of a potential TVK-AIADMK alliance stalled as Congress came to the scene and sealed its support for the potential TVK government. Following this, the TVK paused its talks with the AIADMK, sources said.
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In its statement, the Congress said its support to Vijay’s party would be conditional on “keeping out any communal forces that do not believe in the Constitution of India” from the alliance. Though the party did not name the AIADMK directly, the remark is being viewed in political circles as an apparent reference to parties previously aligned with the NDA.
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The Congress decided to support Vijay and TVK after an urgent meeting of the party’s Political Affairs Committee convened by Tamil Nadu in-charge Girish Chodankar. Top Congress leaders, including party president Mallikarjun Kharge and MP Rahul Gandhi, discussed the evolving political situation in Tamil Nadu during a meeting in Delhi.
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The Congress is also understood to be reaching out to smaller parties, including CPM, CPI, the VCK and Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) – all of whom are DMK’s allies – to consolidate support behind Vijay. The VCK was expected to hold an office-bearer meeting on Thursday to decide whether it wants to join the TVK-led government. However, that meeting is cancelled now.
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Preparations have already begun for Vijay’s oath-taking ceremony, which is likely to be held on May 8 at the Jawaharlal Nehru Indoor Stadium in Chennai. According to sources, Rahul Gandhi might attend the oath-taking ceremony. He had earlier congratulated Vijay on his victory.
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As the TVK-Congress alliance was finalised, the DMK accused the grand old party of “betrayal”. In a post, DMK leader Kanimozhi Somu wrote, “Abandoning those who trusted them and scrambling for new opportunities is a trait steeped in the very blood of Congress, and this serves as proof. The Congress, which grew strong on the might of the DMK, now seeking to challenge the very DMK itself, is a low-class act of kicking away the ladder once you’ve climbed it.”
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Senior Congress leader Karti Chidambaram dismissed the DMK’s “backstabbing” charge as an “unfortunate” reaction from those who “do not understand how post-poll coalitions function”. “I saw that comment by a DMK spokesperson. I think it’s very unfortunate. I don’t think he understands how post-election coalitions work,” Chidambaram told India Today TV.
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