In Kerala’s tradition of alternating the alliance in power every five years, a third straight term for the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in 2026 had seemed somewhat improbable. Yet, the scale of its defeat that has marked a grand comeback for the Congress-led combine leaves the incumbents with much introspection to do.
The 90-odd seats that the United Democratic Front (UDF) won in the 140-member legislative assembly scalped many LDF heavyweights. While chief minister Vijayan, after trailing in six rounds of counting, won the Dharmadam seat by over 19,000 votes, 13 of the 19 members of his cabinet were defeated, indicating a wave against the government. The ministers who lost are Veena George, V.N. Vasavan, P. Rajeev, M.B. Rajesh, R. Bindu, Kadannappally Ramachandran, V. Abdurahiman, A.K. Saseendran, K.B. Ganesh Kumar, V. Sivankutty, Roshy Augustine, O.R. Kelu and J. Chinchurani.
The LDF had projected a hat-trick victory with 76 seats, but faced severe reverses in strongholds, indicating that even hardcore supporters may have voted against it. The UDF blanked out the LDF in Wayanad, Ernakulam, Pathanamthitta and Malappuram districts, signalling a powerful consolidation by the minorities in its favour.
“Pinarayi Vijayan made a blunder with projections. He was misled by a group of cronies, who told him how he was right in his decisions and that Kerala is going to elect him to power again,” said a senior bureaucrat, who did not wish to be named.
While the UDF capitalised on anti-incumbency, CPI(M) rebels further shook the ground for the ruling alliance. Among the victorious rebels are former minister G. Sudhakaran from Ambalapuzha, T.K. Govindan from Taliparamba and V. Kunhikrishnan from Payyannur. The party leadership had clearly underrated their potential.
The CPI(M) lost two seats to the BJP—Nemom (BJP Kerala chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar) and Kazhakoottam (V. Muraleedharan)—and its ally CPI one (Chathannoor). This is the BJP’s best performance in Kerala assembly polls yet. In 2016, the party had debuted from Nemom, but drew a blank in 2021.
P.K. Kunhalikutty, national general secretary of UDF constituent Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), won the Malappuram seat by over 85,000 votes—the biggest margin of victory in Kerala’s electoral history. In fact, the IUML and Kerala Congress (Joseph) faction helped the UDF make significant gains in the polls.
For the Congress, the victory in Kerala is some good news after a long time. “The message is clear. Kerala was waiting to vote for the UDF. We will form a responsible government and provide clean rule,” AICC general secretary K.C. Venugopal told the media.
The victory, however, presents the challenge of an intense contest for the post of chief ministership, for which there are at least three frontrunners—Venugopal, the Lok Sabha MP from Alappuzha who enjoys the party high command’s trust; V.D. Satheesan, who was leader of the Opposition in the outgoing assembly; and veteran Ramesh Chennithala. Another challenge will be to run the government effectively since the exchequer is already strained. The anti-incumbency wave certainly was a mega gift from the Vijayan government, but a new dispensation strapped of funds certainly won’t be.
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