Home to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Kolkata’s Bhabanipur Assembly constituency has a mixed demographic profile. Bengalis account for nearly 40 per cent of the electorate, while Gujaratis, Marwaris, Biharis, Sikhs, and others make up another 40 per cent. Muslims comprise around 20 per cent of the population, according to multiple reports.
Since 2011, Banerjee has won the seat three times — in the 2011 and 2021 bypolls and the 2016 Assembly elections. In both bypolls, she secured emphatic victories with vote shares exceeding 70 per cent. This time, she faces senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader Suvendu Adhikari.
Of the eight elections (including bypolls and Lok Sabha elections) held over the past 15 years, the Trinamool Congress has won or led in the constituency on seven occasions. The party, however, faced a scare in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, trailing the BJP by 185 votes in the Assembly segment.
Apart from its big bypoll wins, the TMC secured the seat with commanding vote shares of nearly 65 per cent in 2011 and 58 per cent in 2021. However, in the 2016 Assembly polls, its vote share dipped below 48 per cent. In three Lok Sabha elections, the party has also seen a decline in its vote share.
Presidency region, a TMC stronghold
Bhabanipur is one of 142 Assembly constituencies in the second and final phase on April 29. A bulk of these seats fall within the Presidency region, comprising Kolkata, Howrah, the two Parganas, and Nadia.
With 111 seats, the Presidency region has been a TMC stronghold since 2011. According to a PTI report, “South 24 Parganas, along with Purba Medinipur, was among the first zilla parishads the TMC wrested from the Left in 2008. By 2011 and 2016, both 24 Parganas had become the party’s near-complete strongholds.”
The region has been West Bengal’s economic engine and is densely populated. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC won 96 of these seats. The BJP had to contend with just 14 seats. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, however, the BJP made some gains and led in 21 Assembly segments.
What has worked for the TMC over the years is the consolidation of minority votes in its favour. However, a new variable this time is the widespread deletion of names following the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. The two parganas saw deletions exceeding 12 lakh names, while nearly seven lakh names were removed in Kolkata. The two parganas are also home to a sizeable Matua population.
Altogether, of the 142 seats going to the polls on Wednesday, the TMC won 123 in the 2021 Assembly elections, securing a 49.2 per cent vote share. The BJP trailed with 36.1 per cent, winning 18 seats in the region, while others secured one.
Notably, the TMC’s vote share has remained above 48 per cent in the last three elections. The BJP’s vote share, on the other hand, rose sharply from under four per cent in 2011 to 36 per cent in 2021.
According to an analysis by the Association for Democratic Reforms, only 15 per cent of the 1,448 candidates in the fray in the second phase are women. While 23 per cent of the candidates have pending criminal cases, 20 per cent face serious charges.
The ADR notes that 63 of the 142 seats have three or more candidates with declared criminal cases, classifying them as red alert constituencies. With average assets of Rs 1.21 crore, 22 per cent of candidates have declared assets exceeding Rs 1 crore.
– Ends
